Monday, September 29, 2008

Good Articles 9/29

Sour economy tied to psychology that fed gas panic

NASHVILLE, Tenn. - As anxiety on Wall Street led banks and other investors to hoard cash last week, a different kind of market fear gripped cities across the Southeast.

A hurricane-related disruption in gasoline supplies prompted jittery drivers from Atlanta to Nashville to top off their fuel tanks more than usual, causing sporadic shortages and temporary shutdowns of stations. These closures only magnified the problem, of course, leading to more shortages, which sent local prices skyrocketing.

"It's a wonder people didn't go out and empty all of the grocery store shelves, too," said Larry Lamb, of Nashville. "All you need to do when something like this happens is just calm down."

Perhaps — in hindsight — that is the sensible thing to do.

But economists and other experts say individuals — not just Americans — are hard-wired to respond quickly when they are scared, and in a way that is not always in their own, or their neighbors', best interests.

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Oil falls to near $103 on global slowdown fears

Oil prices fell to near $103 a barrel Monday on concern that economic growth will slow across the globe despite a tentative agreement in Washington on a $700 billion bailout package to stabilize the U.S. financial system.

By midday in Europe, light, sweet crude for November delivery was down $3.50 to $103.39 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell Friday $1.13 to settle at $106.89.


Iran's central bank to inject $15bn from oil fund into banks

Iran's new central bank governor said he would inject $15 billion (Dh55.1bn) into the banking system to help them boost industrial production, a move economists have warned will stoke surging inflation.

Governor Mahmoud Bahmani said the funds would come from an oil reserve fund and by helping to boost production would ease price rises, echoing the government's line.


The tank isn't empty

It is taken as an article of faith, thanks largely to a decades old prediction made by M. King Hubbert on American oil production, that the world is in imminent danger of running out of oil. Peak production, the day when oil production begins its irreversible slide, may be less than a decade away, say some experts, and the world economy could collapse overnight in response.

Except that isn't the truth, argues Robin D. Mills in The Myth of the Oil Crisis: Overcoming the Challenges of Depletion, Geopolitics, and Global Warming. He believes that the world is in little danger of running out of oil, that the world has enough conventional and unconventional sources of oil to last it many decades – even centuries. The peak oil arguments are based on faulty logic and science and assumptions which aren't grounded in reality.


Search for a strike

Consumers in Hawaii and the nation need to brace for continued high gas prices until alternative energy sources can be developed on a commercial scale, warns a prominent university futurist.

"I think that we are long past the time when we could more or less effortlessly and painlessly transition from oil to alternative forms," said Jim Dator, director of the Hawaii Research Center for Future Studies at the University of Hawaii.


Consumerist society fuels rising oil prices: The time has come to question our 'need' for excess

For some time it has been impossible to pick up a newspaper without reading about the soaring price of fuel. The increase has been truly dramatic due to a quadrupling of the cost of a barrel of oil since 2004. It is something that we all feel because of the impact that it has on our everyday lives.

What may be less obvious is that this same price increase has also been a major shock to the global supply chains that support commerce and bring most of the low cost products to the high street. Worryingly, the impact of the price hike is still working its way through those systems.


South Korea Seeks $90 Billion of Russian Natural Gas

(Bloomberg) -- South Korea plans to import $90 billion of natural gas from Russia via North Korea, with which it shares one of the world's most heavily fortified borders, to reduce its reliance on more expensive cargoes arriving by sea.


Russian govt plans more oil tax cuts for 2010

While the Russian stock market was suspended, Russian government officials put together a plan that would help increase investment in the Russian oil sector. Kremlin economic advisor Arkady Dvork ovich said on September 19 said his country would propose more tax cuts for the oil industry this year and implement them in 2010.


The Rise of Natural Gas Populism

What is interesting about the Pickens/Chesapeake twin campaigns is their direct, populist appeal. Most firms go to Washington to lobby for what they want, and there’s not doubt Mr. Pickens and Chesapeake are doing their measure of that.

But they are also spending millions of dollars doing things the old-fashioned way: taking their case over the heads of politicians and directly to the people — or more specifically, to consumers.


Congress' failure leaves energy policy up in air

WASHINGTON — Few issues have been debated as long or as heatedly in Congress this year as energy policy — with so little result.

Inaction means the debate over offshore drilling, how much the federal government should offer in new alternative energy incentives and whether higher fuel economy standards are needed is left to next year. There won't be presidential politics then or members of Congress seeking re-election. That could increase chances for consensus.


Oil flowing from offshore spigot still years away

WASHINGTON (AP) — The welcome sign is going out to oil and gas companies off the Atlantic and Pacific coasts.

v A quarter-century ban on offshore exploration expires in this coming week, but don't expect to see a chain of drilling platforms from the beaches anytime soon.

It will take a couple of years, at least, before any oil or natural gas leases are issued, years more before any oil is found and perhaps a decade before any of it begins to flow to refineries.


Dems fail to extend oil shale moratorium

GLENWOOD SPRINGS, Colorado — Senate Democrats on Friday tried passing a bill that included language that would continue to prohibit the Bureau of Land Management from issuing final oil shale regulations.

But that effort failed when the financial stimulus package, which would have contained the oil shale ban, stalled in the Senate on a 52-to-42 vote.


Africa: Leaders Say Fuel, Food Crises Have Hit Nations Hard

The soaring cost of fuel and basic foods over the past year has left many countries in sub-Saharan Africa unable to adequately fund critical activities, such as healthcare and provision of safe drinking water, their leaders told the UN General Assembly's annual high-level debate on Thursday.

Guinea-Bissau's President João Bernardo Vieira said the sharp rise in the cost of oil had been particularly destabilizing on the economy of his country, which is already among the poorest in the world.


Wind power plans may be blown off course

Problems in sourcing sufficient turbines, and in planning, construction and grid connection are hampering the “wind rush”. A recent report by a committee of MPs showed that in most of the remote locations where wind farms are being built, there is no access to the national grid. In some places, developers are facing 12-year delays before they can be connected.

There is also an urgent need to expand the industry’s skilled workforce and present opportunities for graduates. According to Brown, the resurgence of apprenticeships and the launch of the engineering diploma will help to plug the gap.


Ammonia Fuel—The Other Hydrogen Future

It may indeed be the case that pure hydrogen will be one of the many solutions that can be harnessed to rescue us from our current reliance on imported oil. There is much promise in today’s research. But the technical challenges facing pure hydrogen today in economic production, storage, and transport put that piece of the puzzle years in the future—and we need answers right now.

What if this vision of a distant hydrogen energy future ignores a critical reality: that an alternative approach to hydrogen fuel is available immediately; that with minimal modifications we could convert the bulk of our gasoline and diesel internal combustion engines to an existing hydrogen based fuel, eliminating carbon emissions and reducing our dependence on foreign oil; that a proven technology exists to produce this hydrogen based fuel without carbon dioxide emissions; and that new and more efficient synthesis is already in coming online? What if we do not need to wait for the hydrogen future of the year 2030? What if our hydrogen future is within our grasp right now?


Pumping the biofuels, from Rio to the Humber

Finding oil is one thing but when it comes to getting it to the market, the big challenges stem from the demand for cleaner and greener fuel. Refiners and distributors worldwide are facing new regulations to reduce the sulphur content of fuels and tighter government targets to cut carbon dioxide emissions.

In the “downstream” sector (the business of refining, production and distribution), gas-to-liquids technology that converts natural gas into diesel and other liquid fuels is “on the verge of commercialisation,” according to Al Troner, president of Asia Pacific Energy Consulting in Houston, Texas. “It could make a big difference.


PM finds he can't sell coal to Newcastle

It was a city built on its steelworks and coal, but Prime Minister Kevin Rudd was confronted by a new breed of Newcastle residents committed to climate change.


Coal power plants 'must be clean'

Coal-fired power stations must not be built unless they can capture and store CO2, the Environment Agency has warned.


Cities get too much blame for global warming: study

LONDON (Reuters) - Cities often blamed for producing most of the world's greenhouse gas emissions actually generate just two-fifths or less, according to a study published on Friday.

U.N. agencies, former U.S. President Bill Clinton's climate change initiative and New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg have all said that 75 to 80 percent of total emissions come from cities, the paper in the journal Environment and Urbanization says.

But using data from the U.N. climate change panel, it estimates the correct figure at between 30 and 40 percent.


Scientists pressure Australian PM to step up carbon cuts

SYDNEY (AFP) - Australia's leading climate change scientists Monday pleaded with Prime Minister Kevin Rudd to override his top adviser on the issue and drastically slash carbon gas emissions.

Professor Ross Garnaut, commissioned by the government to review Australia's response to the global problem of climate change caused by mounting carbon gases, has recommended a 10 percent drop from 1990 levels by 2020.

But 16 scientists, including Roger Jones, coordinating lead author of a United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, said emissions must decrease by 25 percent.


Europe warms fast: Med drier, north ever wetter

OSLO (Reuters) - Europe is warming faster than the world average and governments need to invest to adapt to a changing climate set to turn the Mediterranean region arid and the north ever wetter, a study showed on Monday.

Europe's mountains, coasts, the Mediterranean and the Arctic were most at risk from global warming, according to the report by the European Environment Agency and branches of the World Health Organization and the European Commission.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

AT: "debate tech" bad K's

Rejection of expertise and training as "elitism" risks extinction

Sam Harris, Newsweek 9-20-08 http://www.newsweek.com/id/160080/page/1

The prospects of a Palin administration are far more frightening, in fact, than those of a Palin Institute for Pediatric Neurosurgery. Ask yourself: how has "elitism" become a bad word in American politics? There is simply no other walk of life in which extraordinary talent and rigorous training are denigrated. We want elite pilots to fly our planes, elite troops to undertake our most critical missions, elite athletes to represent us in competition and elite scientists to devote the most productive years of their lives to curing our diseases. And yet, when it comes time to vest people with even greater responsibilities, we consider it a virtue to shun any and all standards of excellence. When it comes to choosing the people whose thoughts and actions will decide the fates of millions, then we suddenly want someone just like us, someone fit to have a beer with, someone down-to-earth—in fact, almost anyone, provided that he or she doesn't seem too intelligent or well educated. I believe that with the nomination of Sarah Palin for the vice presidency, the silliness of our politics has finally put our nation at risk. The world is growing more complex—and dangerous—with each passing hour, and our position within it growing more precarious. Should she become president, Palin seems capable of enacting policies so detached from the common interests of humanity, and from empirical reality, as to unite the entire world against us. When asked why she is qualified to shoulder more responsibility than any person has held in human history, Palin cites her refusal to hesitate. "You can't blink," she told Gibson repeatedly, as though this were a primordial truth of wise governance. Let us hope that a President Palin would blink, again and again, while more thoughtful people decide the fate of civilization.


Wednesday, September 24, 2008

AT: Lopez CP

One good way to answer arguments is to indict their authors:

"This Administration deserves to be trusted because it has kept us safe from terrorist attack since 9/11, has fought and won two wars, has presided over eight years of economic growth, has appointed two stellar justices to the Supreme Court, and has even learned how to do Louisiana’s job of protecting that state from hurricanes. The day will come, and not before long, when Americans will wish that George Bush was still president,"
- Steven Calabresi, professor of law at the Northwestern University Law School.

Good Articles 9/24

OPEC oil output expected to drop

LONDON–OPEC's oil supply is expected to fall sharply in September because of lower output from members including Saudi Arabia and Iran, industry consultant Petrologistics said on Wednesday.

The estimate boosted oil prices and indicates that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was starting to cut supplies even before it agreed on Sept. 10 to trim output back to official targets.

OPEC's 13 members are expected to pump 32.6 million barrels per day in September, down from a revised 33.4 million bpd in August when output was unusually high, Conrad Gerber, head of Petrologistics, told Reuters.

"Things have come back to normal," Gerber said. "This has nothing to do with the OPEC decision. That reduction will come later on."

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Investigation Widens Into Unusual Oil Price Rise

Federal regulators have subpoenaed recent trading records from several Nymex traders as part of a widening investigation into the sharp rise in oil prices on Monday.


Dmitry Orlov: Adieu, stage 1 collapse!

So far so good. In terms of mental milestones, we can tease apart financial collapse into a number of psychological levees that are being breached one by one. The first one to go was people's faith in home equity: that the value of their homes will serve as a nest egg to sustain them in retirement. What we have been witnessing for the past week or so is the demise of people's faith that their investment portfolio will sustain them. It is still easy to find investment advisers who will tell you to "go long on equities" because, you see, "eventually the economy will recover," but their reassuring words are starting to sound like a death rattle to all those whose retirement savings suddenly look laughably inadequate.


LaBruzzo: Sterilization plan fights poverty

Worried that welfare costs are rising as the number of taxpayers declines, state Rep. John LaBruzzo, R-Metairie, said Tuesday he is studying a plan to pay poor women $1,000 to have their Fallopian tubes tied.

"We're on a train headed to the future and there's a bridge out," LaBruzzo said of what he suspects are dangerous demographic trends. "And nobody wants to talk about it."

LaBruzzo said he worries that people receiving government aid such as food stamps and publicly subsidized housing are reproducing at a faster rate than more affluent, better-educated people who presumably pay more tax revenue to the government. He said he is gathering statistics now.


Power From the Restless Sea Stirs the Imagination

For years, technological visionaries have painted a seductive vision of using ocean tides and waves to produce power. They foresee large installations off the coast and in tidal estuaries that could provide as much as 10 percent of the nation’s electricity.

But the technical difficulties of making such systems work are proving formidable. Last year, a wave-power machine sank off the Oregon coast. Blades have broken off experimental tidal turbines in New York’s turbulent East River. Problems with offshore moorings have slowed the deployment of snakelike generating machines in the ocean off Portugal.


B.C.'s ethanol standards for gasoline a mistake: scientists

B.C. is taking the wrong approach by mandating that gasoline sold in the province contain five per cent ethanol by 2010, according to some scientific experts.


Spain eases plan to slash subsidy for solar power

MADRID (Reuters) - Spain has decided to ease proposed sharp cuts in a generous subsidy scheme to solar power producers in one of the world's hottest markets, Energy Secretary Pedro Marin said on Tuesday.


BHP wants to sell uranium to China for decades

BHP Billiton, the world's largest mining company, is positioning itself to supply China with uranium for "decades'' as the country ramps up its nuclear plant program in a carbon conscious world.


Green idealists fail to make grade, says study

People who believe they have the greenest lifestyles can be seen as some of the main culprits behind global warming, says a team of researchers, who claim that many ideas about sustainable living are a myth.

According to the researchers, people who regularly recycle rubbish and save energy at home are also the most likely to take frequent long-haul flights abroad. The carbon emissions from such flights can swamp the green savings made at home, the researchers claim.


The burning issue: Few now dispute that coal is key to a clean energy future

AS the climate change debate moves from the abstract to the concrete, the clean coal sceptics are slowly being mugged by reality. The facts are that almost a quarter of world energy demand is fuelled by coal and 39 per cent of the world's electricity is generated in coal-fired power stations. It is impossible to imagine a smooth international transition to a carbon-constrained economy without finding cleaner ways to burn coal.


EU lawmakers set to halt carbon curbs

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - European Union lawmakers are set to slam the brakes on plans to curb carbon dioxide emissions from cars, easing the burden on the auto industry in the fight against climate change, documents circulated on Tuesday showed.

A draft European Parliament resolution would delay and soften the mandatory emissions limits proposed by the executive European Commission, reduce the fines for non-compliance and give carmakers a freer hand on how they achieve the cuts.


Senate approves bill with energy trade-offs

WASHINGTON — Oil and gas companies could soon be helping fund renewable energy projects, via the Internal Revenue Service.

But the industry also may be one step closer to gaining access to more areas offshore as Democratic leaders agreed Tuesday to drop a quarter-century ban on drilling off the East and West coasts.

"The White House made it clear any new drilling provision was a nonstarter," said Drew Hammill, a spokesman for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif. "The future resolution of offshore drilling will have to be addressed with a new president."

In what could prove to be a pivotal day on Capitol Hill for the oil and gas industry, the Democratic-led Senate — in its ninth attempt — finally, and overwhelmingly, approved a measure that would provide $17 billion in tax credits for renewable energy sources, largely by hitting up the oil and gas companies for higher taxes.


Oil rises $2 on U.S. fuel supply concerns

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil rose more than $2 to over $109 a barrel on Wednesday as concerns about U.S. fuel supply outweighed anxiety about the U.S. government's $700 billion plan to rescue the finance industry.


Chavez sees 1 million-barrel oil exports to China

In comments broadcast Tuesday on state television in Venezuela, Chavez said Venezuela's oil exports to China would increase to almost 500,000 barrels a day next year. That figure could reach 1 million barrels a day within four years, he said.

The sides also plan to construct three oil refineries in China capable of processing Venezuela's heavy sulfer-laden crude and build four oil tankers.

"While the world enters an energy crisis, we are investing," Chavez said.


Jordan gets first subsidised Iraqi oil under new deal

AMMAN (AFP) - Jordan received 11,000 barrels of Iraqi oil by road on Wednesday, the first delivery under a new agreement which revises the subsidy the kingdom receives in the light of spiralling world prices, Energy Minister Khaldun Qteishat said.

"Forty-one tankers laden with 11,000 barrels of crude oil from Iraq crossed the border today," Qteishat told AFP.


The road less travelled: a sceptic’s view of the commodities boom

While arguments on ‘peak oil’ have been around for decades (and yet to be realised), the inability to add supply quickly in many commodities due to infra structure and labour supply bottlenecks has fuelled con cerns over the ability to add supply in the longer term.

The ability of these argu ments to elicit an enthusiastic reaction among a large number of investors is obvi ous. The opposing case for sceptics is perhaps more complex.


Saudi central bank says no scarcity in bank liquidity

RIYADH (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia's central bank governor said on Wednesday there was no scarcity in liquidity in the world's top oil exporter and Saudi banks were in a good position to weather a global downturn.

"Figures point to strong growth in loans, money supply, banks have liquidity, additional deposits. There is no scarcity in liquidity," Hamad Saud al-Sayyari told reporters.

"Banks want to expand. This conflicts with our policy in limiting the increase in liquidity and the rise in inflation."


Scooter sales skyrocket 66%

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The scooter is becoming the new must-have set of wheels in a lot of American cities.

While auto sales have continued to sink, scooter sales were up 66% in the first half of 2008 compared to a year ago, while motorcycle sales overall only ticked up 0.5%, according to the Motorcycle Industry Council.


Green energy’s big win in Congress

After a year of stalemate that threatened to strangle the nascent United States solar industry, the U.S. Senate on Tuesday passed energy legislation that extends a key investment tax credit until 2016.


Review: Carfree Cities by J.H. Crawford

Can you imagine a world without cars? No honking horns, snarled traffic, and no cloying pollution. J.H. Crawford, author of Carfree Cities, not only asks us to consider this possibility, but he outlines in his book the steps to turn the carfree dream into a reality. “Venice, Italy is certainly the best advertisement for carfree cities that I have ever seen,” explains Crawford.


Jeremy Leggett: Independence from the street up

The International Energy Agency (IEA) is warning of an oil crunch by 2012, so we have to act immediately if we aren't to add peak oil to our credit-crunch woes. There is also a grave risk of major shortfalls in gas supply in the next few years. North Sea oil and gas production is plunging 7.5% a year at the same time as liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects are being cancelled around the world. Meanwhile, Moscow dangles the prospect of sending most of its gas exports east to China, rather than west to Europe.


Double-dose of Kunstler on Community Learning Day

"A list of the things you said that I disagree with would be very long," Kunstler said.

"Compelling in its compassion but a little strange," Kunstler said of Bates' standpoint. "It raises the basic question: so what? My answer to that question, to all of the displays of compassion (is that we)are going to be overridden by our own problems."

He emphasized the idea that people should focus on environmental problems as a nation and let other countries handle their own problems without U.S. assistance.


Getting on track

And the corn looked strange. After 15 years away, I expected changes, but I had to look closely to understand what I was seeing. While childhood scenes usually appear smaller when revisited in adulthood, these fields looked larger.

It wasn’t just because I’d been urbanized — these fields really were bigger! What had shrunk was the space in between the cornstalks, in between the corn and the bean fields, and in between the fields and any roads or farmhouses. Fortunately, I’d watched the documentary “King Corn” (click here for more information) and read Michael Pollan’s writings on modern corn cultivation, so I had some idea of how to account for these seemingly endless vistas of corn and soybeans.

Evidently, hybrid strains of corn have been developed that can produce even while planted pretty much toe to toe. Unless you look at them from above, say from the observation car on the second story of the train, you can’t even see that there are rows. Back when I lived in Iowa City, my friend’s beagle used to periodically take off between the rows in the cornfield near the park, and stay in there for hours. Now, you couldn’t shove a beagle between those stalks. A guinea pig, maybe.


Crisis no reason to dilute climate plan - EU

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The global financial crisis is no reason to water down the European Union's flagship plan to fight climate change, the bloc's environment chief said on Wednesday.


Arctic 'methane chimneys' raise fears of runaway climate change

Scientists claim to have discovered evidence for large releases of methane into the atmosphere from frozen seabed stores off the northern coast of Siberia.

A large injection of the gas - which is 21 times more potent as an atmospheric heat trap than carbon dioxide - has long been cited by climate scientists as the potential trigger for runaway global warming. The warming caused by the gas could destabilise permafrost further, they fear, leading to yet more methane release.

But climate experts have expressed caution at the claims, which have yet to be published in a peer reviewed scientific journal. Methane release from stores of so-called gas hydrates, that can form on land or under the sea, is not new to researchers. Huge quantities are known to exist in the Arctic, but special circumstances would need to exist for significant releases to occur.


Met Office: Global warming sceptics 'have heads in sand'

The UK Met Office climate change bureau has issued a stinging attack on the idea that recent falls in global temperature might mean that global warming is over or has been exaggerated.

"Anyone who thinks global warming has stopped has their head in the sand," said an unnamed Met Office spokesman in a statement released online today.


Vegetarian shift seen helping climate, not poor

OSLO (Reuters) - Eating less meat can help rich nations to combat global warming but may not work for poor countries where people depend on livestock for survival, a leading expert said on Wednesday.


Western cap and trade initiative faces obstacles

GRANTS PASS, Ore. - A new Western regional plan to cap and trade greenhouse gas emissions faces a tough road in state legislatures, where the details still must be worked out.

The Western Climate Initiative would establish a regional market to trade carbon emissions credits, allowing industries that emit greenhouse gases to buy and sell credits for their emissions. The goal is to cut the region's carbon emissions to below 2005 levels by 2020, a roughly 15 percent reduction.

The initiative, proposed Tuesday by seven western states and four Canadian provinces, covers more polluters than other regional plans adopted in the United States, Canada and Europe.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Good articles - 9/23

Exclusive: The methane time bomb

Arctic scientists discover new global warming threat as melting permafrost releases millions of tons of a gas 20 times more damaging than carbon dioxide

The first evidence that millions of tons of a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide is being released into the atmosphere from beneath the Arctic seabed has been discovered by scientists.

The Independent has been passed details of preliminary findings suggesting that massive deposits of sub-sea methane are bubbling to the surface as the Arctic region becomes warmer and its ice retreats.


Russia Denies Plans "Unilateral Partition" Of Oil-Rich Arctic

MOSCOW (AFP)--Moscow has no plans to carry out a "unilateral partition" of the oil-rich Arctic, Russia's foreign ministry said Tuesday, rejecting reports that sparked anger in the region last week.

"Russia strictly abides by the norms and principles of international law and is firmly determined to act within existing international agreements and mechanisms," the ministry said in a statement.


OPEC exports up 159,000 bpd in 4 wks to Sept 7 - LMIU

LONDON (Reuters) - OPEC seaborne oil exports, excluding Angola and Ecuador, rose 159,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the four weeks to Sept. 7, climbing just prior to a group decision to rein in output, Lloyd's Marine Intelligence Unit (LMIU) said on Tuesday.

LMIU said oil shipments from 11 OPEC producers, including Iraq, rose to 23.644 million bpd from Aug. 17 to Sept. 7, versus 23.485 million bpd in the previous four weeks.


No Plan B for British Energy

Perhaps the Government likes the "comfort blanket" of having arguably the most experienced nuclear power duo in charge. EdF's partner in Britain's nuclear new-build will be the French reactor designer Areva. "Never mind the final BE sale price – look at the industrial logic," seems to be the view of many in Whitehall. Why? Because some real fears are emerging about Britain's short- to medium-term energy problems.

Some eminent people now argue that the future could be bleak indeed. One of the country's leading energy experts has warned that we are about to be plunged into a Dickensian world of darkness.


Nigerian militants say army carried out air strike

LAGOS (Reuters) - Nigerian oil rebels said on Tuesday the military had launched an air assault on militant camps in the oil-producing Niger Delta but said they were maintaining a unilateral ceasefire announced on Sunday.


Georgia claims downing of Russian drone

TBILISI - Georgia on Tuesday claimed to have shot down a Russian drone near one of its rebel regions and a key oil pipeline, as U.S. President George W. Bush underlined support for Georgia at the United Nations.

Moscow denied the Georgian claim, describing it as a "provocation."


Indonesia's Poverty Trap

Rising food and fuel prices this year have hit hard for the bottom third of households, which spend 65 per cent of their income on food and drink.

If Indonesia wants to significantly reduce its poverty rate, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development says that its economy needs to grow at least 8 per cent a year.


Petrobras to Search for Subsalt Oil in Angola

Petrobras will conduct seismic tests for subsalt oil deposits in Angola, the Company's Executive Manager said in Sunday's edition of the O Estado de Sao Paulo newspaper.


Enbridge returns to partial service after Ike

Enbridge US unit said repairs on its 16-inch Manta Ray offshore gas gathering system in the Gulf of Mexico were near completion and the line could return to partial service Thursday despite a continuing force majeure outage due to Hurricane Ike.


North Carolina: Gas Shortage Fuels Fights

Fights broke out between motorists waiting in long lines for fuel at an Asheville station and managers called police for help.

The Asheville Citizen-Times reported that three fights occurred Monday at Roadrunner Shell. Station manager Marsha Messer directed lines of cars in her lot and said people are panicked about the shortage.

Some experts say Asheville's distance from the Colonial Pipeline could be adding to the shortage. The pipeline is the main source of East Coast gasoline supplies that were reduced after Hurricane Ike closed oil refineries on the Gulf Coast.


WNC governments conserve fuel, cancel programs

Asheville – County and city governments around Western North Carolina have imposed fuel conservation measures including canceling events and limiting travel as gas remains in short supply this week.


Distributors also wait at the pump

Customers aren’t the only ones waiting in line for gas.

Tankers are returning with half a load and some have been turned away from the fuel terminals, said John Wright, owner of Wright Oil Company in Hendersonville.

Fuel is delivered along the pipeline up the East Coast, and gas is kept in storage tanks, or terminals, along the way. Spartanburg and Belton, S.C., and Charlotte and High Point/Greensboro are the closest terminals. Suppliers determine what allocation of gas a company can buy each day, and Marathon is the supplier for Wright Oil Company.

“We’re allocated on a daily basis how much we can pull from the terminals,” Wright said. “There’s just not enough to go around.”


Tennessee: Rationing and drastic steps ruled out in fuel shortage

State emergency officials said Monday that the Nashville gas crisis was not considered serious enough to employ more drastic measures like rationing, even as the dissection began to determine what caused the fuel crisis here and in other parts of the Southeast.


Tennessee: Gas Shortage Keeps Workers Home

NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- Because of the gas shortage, quite a few people aren't showing up for work -- including some teachers.

Businesses are losing money and being forced to get creative to keep customers served and positions staffed.


Tennessee: Police Referee Gas Spats

On Friday, police responded to 34 "gas rage" calls; 27 more calls in Saturday and two on Sunday.

"These calls are being classified as disorderly persons calls. Police officers are not responding with lights and sirens and by the time they get there, by and large, things have worked themselves out," said Metro police spokesman Don Aaron.


Georgia: Scarce gas fuels angst

Northeast Georgia drivers had to look a little harder than usual to find a stocked gas station this weekend, but spot fuel shortages across the region didn't keep drivers off the road, according to state Department of Transportation officials.


Will the Chevy Volt save the world? - Please! It isn't even enough to save General Motors.

To put the Volt in perspective, it is an expensive, low-volume automobile that will have no visible impact on GM's market share, CAFE average or profitability. One cynic calls it "a Viper for tree huggers."


Unexpectedly, Las Vegas hit by downturn

Two factors make the current downturn harder for Las Vegas than previous ones, according to analysts.

One is high gasoline prices, which will hit the pockets of the more than half of Las Vegas visitors who drive in by car or bus. No one knows how $4-a-gallon gasoline will affect their spending decisions, said Margaret Holloway, senior credit officer at Moody's Investors Service.


US Senate Bill Kills Tax Credit For Clean-Diesel Project

WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- A U.S. Senate vote Tuesday on tax legislation could be the death knell for a partnership between ConocoPhillips (COP) and Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) that promised to generate as much as $175 million in tax credits annually through the production of cleaner-burning diesel fuel.

Soap makers and producers of biodiesel, a diesel additive made from vegetable oil, joined lobbying forces to help kill the $1 per gallon tax credit for the Tyson-ConocoPhillips venture.


The Changing Face of Abortion

Financial barriers seem to be one of the most persistent obstacles in the fight to reduce socioeconomic disparities in abortion rates, say experts. Medicaid coverage of birth control varies by state, and the bureaucracy can be difficult to navigate. The current Guttmacher study did not look at the socioeconomic status of women having abortions, but the institute's previous research has shown the abortion rates for women below the federal poverty line to be much higher than for more economically advantaged women. "When you don't have access to affordable birth control, rates of unintended pregnancy are going to be higher. That's a sad and real-life consequence of the health insurance gap," says Laurie Rubiner, Planned Parenthood's vice president of public policy.

Other shifts in demographics bolster Rubiner's claim that the women having abortions today are increasingly under economic duress: Compared with 1974, they are much more likely to already have children, as well as to be unmarried. "Women are making a decision, 'Can I feed another mouth,'" says Kim Gandy, president of the National Organization of Women.


Take Over ExxonMobil Instead

The Federal government is acquiring an investment portfolio that resembles my own—all losers, no winners. Why can’t the government take over a profitable company for a change and maybe help solve climate turmoil at the same time?

A suggestion: Take over ExxonMobil.


Environmental laws wedge state into hydrological corner

We can no longer afford to succumb to irrational environmental policies and judicial decisions. It is time for action. It is time to identify the problem and implement a solution.

One of the main problems is the Endangered Species Act and its lack of flexibility in light of the drastic impact of its mandates on the economy of an entire state, and, most importantly, on human beings and their livelihoods. The immediate solution on this front is the bipartisan legislation that we introduced last week with other members of the California delegation. The California Drought Alleviation Act gives the secretary of the interior the ability to temporarily exempt the delta pumps from the ESA during times of extreme water shortage -- such as now -- in order to fill reservoirs to provide for agriculture and urban use.


Polar bears resort to cannibalism as Arctic ice shrinks

(CNN) -- Summer is over in the northern hemisphere, but it's been another chilling season for researchers who study Arctic sea ice.

"It's definitely a bad report. We did pick up little bit from last year, but this is over 30 percent below what used to be normal," said Walt Meier, a research scientist with the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado.


Mexican oil production falls 9 percent

MEXICO CITY: Mexico's state-run oil company says output fell 9 percent to 2.83 million barrels a day in the first eight months of the year.

Petroleos Mexicanos says sagging oil production is due a drop at its main Cantarell oil field. Output there was down by 26 percent to 998,000 barrels a day.

The company said Monday that the decline helped cut exports to 1.43 million barrels a day, down 16 percent from the year-ago period.


Delays Start to Plague Giant Saudi Downstream Projects as Ras Tanura and PetroRabigh Plants Slip Behind

Saudi projects could be regarded as safe, as the financial muscle of state-owned giant Saudi Aramco virtually guarantees the financing of these politically important projects. Nevertheless the delays and soaring costs will add significant inconvenience to all parts in a market where growth is evaporating and future demand levels, as well as investments, become increasingly uncertain.


Saudis Cut Oil Sales To Large Global Customers - US Refiner

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Saudi Arabia is cutting oil exports to some of its biggest global refining customers, but not in the U.S., an independent U.S. refiner said Monday.

"There are Saudi cutbacks, but it did not affect us," a person familiar with the refiner's crude purchasing said. "It affected some of their big global customers."

Some of these large customers may have refineries in the U.S., but are only seeing supplies cut to assets outside the country, the person said.


UN's Ban questions faith in "magic" of markets

UNITED NATIONS, Sept 23 (Reuters) - The global financial crisis endangers efforts to reduce world poverty and demands a new approach with less "uncritical faith in the 'magic' of markets," U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said on Tuesday.

..."We face a global financial crisis. A global energy crisis. A global food crisis," Ban said.


Pakistan: 6 killed, 20 injured, 3 banks burnt to ashes in Mingora violent skirmishes

SWAT (APP): At least six persons were killed and 20 others injured while three branches of various commercial banks were set on fire during the day-long violent skirmishes between the angry mob and the local police against continuous unrest, power and gas outages in the restive Swat valley on Tuesday.

The officials of local police told reporters that the unruly mob went on rampage and clashed with the police protesting against the lawlessness, continuous power and gas outages in Mingora city for the last couple of days.


80,000 Kenyans risk losing jobs due to energy crisis, warn manufacturers

APA-Nairobi (Kenya) Nearly 80,000 Kenyans risk loosing their jobs due the energy crisis facing the country, the Kenya Association of Manufacturers (KAM) warned on Monday.

Speaking in Nairobi, KAM chairman Vimal Shah said industries in the country face closure as power costs escalate.


Capitol Matters: No 'Open-Road Tolling Facilities’

HARRISBURG — Get ready to add “Open-Road Tolling Facilities” along Interstate 80 to a list of state-sponsored projects that haven’t been built in Pennsylvania.

It was just weeks ago that the Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission distributed concept drawings of what an ORT would look like. The drawing shows a utilitarian metal gantry spanning the highway with sensors or video cameras to record the license plates of passing vehicles. Motorists would be billed by mail for the toll.


Energy Prices Climbing, Leading More Buildings to Co-Generate

The energy crisis of the 1970s created long lines of cars, with drivers waiting to fuel up at gas stations. These days, increasing fuel demands and rising prices are forcing the cost of everything from groceries to construction materials and other everyday expenditures ever upward. Heavy demand on the overtaxed utility grid has resulted in periodic blackouts in some major cities during summer months. Since utility costs comprise part of a building’s maintenance budget, maintenance costs for residential buildings also have been affected.

These factors have forced the administrators of some cash-strapped buildings to take the unusual step of issuing special assessments to pay for spiraling utility costs. Boards and managers of other buildings are looking at their utility usage and thinking about how to lower—or even just freeze—their costs. More buildings are obtaining multi-year contracts for various services, but such deals are only short-term fixes for the long-term headache of exponentially rising costs.


Oil Man T. Boone Pickens Pressures Presidential Candidates on Energy

Oil tycoon T. Boone Pickens spoke at the National Press Club in Washington Monday and called on both presidential candidates to come up with a plan to reduce U.S. dependence on foreign oil. Pickens has spent millions of dollars on national television ads, promoting his plan for the United States to move away from oil and toward natural gas for its transportation needs and wind power for its electricity needs.


US generals planning for resource wars

ANALYSIS: The US military sees the next 30 to 40 years as involving a state of continuous war against ideologically-motivated terrorists and competing with Russia and China for natural resources and markets.

In January, the next president of the United States will conclude America's timetable for withdrawal in final negotiations with the Iraqi government.

Further evidence of America's future military intentions is contained in recently published strategy documents issued by the US military.

Under the auspices of the US department of defence and department of the army, the US military have just published a document entitled 2008 Army Modernization Strategy which makes for interesting reading against the current backdrop of deteriorating international fiscal, environmental, energy resource and security crises.


China's August oil demand strong but outlook muted

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's apparent oil demand grew a strong 7 percent in August from a year earlier, as energy firms made a last month of massive imports to bolster stocks for the Olympics, even as domestic demand started to flag.


Oil spike jolts investors

Somewhere, Daniel Yergin and Jeff Rubin are smiling.

Yergin, the chairman of Boston-based Cambridge Energy Research Associates, and Rubin, the chief economist for CIBC World Markets, are two of the biggest oil bulls in North America.


Energy 2030 TO illustrate Abu Dhabi's 'Vision 2030'

ADIPEC, one of the largest international petroleum exhibitions and conferences in the world, is working closely with The Petroleum Institute and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC)Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC)Loading..., to host the Energy 2030 Conference. Now in its second year, 2008's edition will illustrate Abu Dhabi's 'Vision 2030' and its commitment to leading the global debate for energy resources of the future.
Matt Simmons is one of the keynote speakers, with a presentation entitled Are We Nearing The Peak Of Fossil Fuel Energy?


Not all oil sands plans face huge cost hikes

CALGARY, Alberta (Reuters) - The multibillion-dollar cost jump that has hit the Fort Hills oil sands development is not representative of other proposals in the industry, which is struggling to deliver projects on time and on budget, the new head of Canada's main oil and gas lobby said Monday.

Still, cost pressures that have plagued the industry have not disappeared, raising the possibility that more developments could be delayed and the forecast for Canadian oil production reduced again, said David Collyer, who took over as president of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers last week.


'Dirty oil' tag confronts new energy spokesman

The oil and gas sector must do a better job of communicating its social and economic benefits to rehabilitate a tarnished image, says the incoming head of the country's largest industry group.

David Collyer, the new chief of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, said the energy industry must do a better job of conveying its contributions to society to avoid being labelled as a greedy industry that damages the environment.


Environment will take back seat to economy, says oil patch czar

CALGARY -- The United States will likely soften its stance on environmental issues tied to the much-criticized oil and gas industry as that country faces tough economic times, according to the new face of Canada's energy lobby organization.

Dave Collyer, who took the helm of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers last week, on Monday said the all-important U.S. market will put the economy on the top of its priority list rather than the environment.


ANALYSIS - U.S. agriculture squeezed by demand, climate

ST. LOUIS (Reuters) - U.S. agriculture faces the daunting task of growing enough crops to meet the demands of both a hungry world and the booming new biofuels industry while reducing its impact on climate change.


NASA researcher discusses climate change

Global warming isn’t all bad news. Government policy might not be changing, but public awareness of the problem is on the rise.

That was the message James Hansen, NASA administrator and researcher, delivered Monday afternoon to a packed house at the Spahr Engineering Classroom.


U.S. regulators review huge NYMEX oil price surge

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. regulator of futures markets said it was reviewing the historic jump in crude oil prices on Monday to assure the trading was valid.

The U.S. crude oil expiring contract for October soared by $16.37 to settle at $120.92 a barrel. At one point, the contract was up by $25.45 a barrel, or 24 percent.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said it commented on the price increase as part of its ongoing investigation of oil trading.

"CFTC surveillance and enforcement staff are closely monitoring today's large movement in the price of crude oil," said acting chairman Walter Lukken.

"We are working closely with NYMEX compliance staff to ensure that no one is taking advantage of the current stresses facing our financial marketplace for their own manipulative gain."


Oil falls toward $108 as traders mull bailout plan

LONDON - Oil prices fell to near $108 a barrel Tuesday in a choppy market driven by uncertainty about whether a $700 billion U.S. plan to buy bad mortgage debt will stabilize the financial system.

Oil prices had surged Monday in volatile trading, spiking more than $25 a barrel at one point, as investors fled to oil amid unease about the mammoth bailout plan.

"People are looking for a safe haven," said Gerard Burg, a minerals and energy analyst with National Australia Bank in Melbourne. "With all the volatility we've seen in the price, I don't know how much of a safe haven oil really is."


Crude Oil Futures Post Record Gain as “Peak Oil” Expert Calls for Rally to $500 a Barrel

Crude oil futures zoomed more than $16 a barrel yesterday (Monday) - and traded as high as $130 a barrel - thanks to a steep decline in the U.S. dollar and speculation that the Bush administration’s plan to bail out the financial sector might actually jump-start the U.S. economy.

The record single-trading-session gain came on a day when CNNMoney.com republished a brand new Fortune magazine story in which author and noted "peak oil pundit" Matthew R. Simmons stated that crude prices were headed for $500 a barrel.


Crude Oil Explodes Higher to $130 Illustrating Irrational Markets

The financial markets being hit by ever larger and more volatile waves of panic today saw crude oil surge from Fridays close of $102 to a high of $130, this is as a direct consequence of last weeks decision by the US governments decision to initially buy up $700 billion of bad bank debt that looks set to eventually run in the many trillions. The proposed plan is highly inflationary and hence scared capital is attempting to seek safe-havens.


Why "Drill, Baby, Drill!" Does Not Translate Into Effective National Energy Policy

The overall quantitative picture for United States oil production today is one where the effect of increased drilling is essentially like putting more straws into the same cup.

Actually, it’s worse than that: if it were only that bad the slopes in the graphs would be -1, and they are actually steeper than that. This is a bit counterintuitive, because what’s actually happening is rather complicated. Some drilling activity really is just putting another hole into the same old reserves. But drilling certainly does find new, previously untapped, resources, too. The problem, as Ken Deffeyes has pointed out in his book Hubbert’s Peak, is that all our new technology, and the recent increase of drilling activity, is mostly going into smaller and smaller discoveries. Our domestic oil supplies are pretty well picked over, and the “low-hanging fruit” remaining—the shallowest, lightest, most-permeable, and largest reserves of domestic oil—are few and far between.


Gas Stations Remain Empty Across Metro Atlanta

ATLANTA (MyFOX Atlanta) -- The drought at the pump is still hitting Atlanta hard. Now, state and industry officials said they are working as fast as they can to restore fuel and are urging people not to panic.

Many motorists drove around metro Atlanta on Monday searching for any gas station that had fuel. Throughout the day, vehicles were lined up at gas stations in a desperate attempt to fill up on gas. Experts said Georgia’s gas shortage will likely continue for the next couple of days.


The Race for Energy: What Will It Mean for Western Firms?

Rising energy demand from China and India has unleashed a worldwide race to secure access to scarce fossil fuel resources, a more difficult proposition with the emergence of national oil companies in the resource-owning countries. While Western companies will likely feel the pain of increasing energy costs, there is a potential upside to global energy scarcity, according to experts from Wharton and The Boston Consulting Group: Renewable and nuclear energy present huge opportunities for investors and entrepreneurs, underscored by concern over a global stalemate surrounding curbs on carbon-dioxide emissions.


Canada: How do the Conservatives rate on energy policy?

How will we get around as fuel becomes very expensive and is rationed? How will our economy and jobs survive the shock of energy shortages and prices? How does Stephen Harper feel about conservation of energy?

Ignoring the problem of peak oil doesn't make it go away.


Businesses Told: 'Go Green to Save Money'

Businesses were today given a blueprint for cutting costs by going green - and told that "green is the new mean". The 51-point plan is published the same week as a study showing that businesses that become greener can boost their value by up to 80%.


UK: Villagers combine to combat climate change

VILLAGERS in North Curry and Stoke St Gregory are doing their bit to combat the problems of climate change and peak oil.

The Save It! group in North Curry has joined with Stoke Green in Stoke St Gregory to raise people’s awareness of climate change and associated issues.


UK: Have a say on our future survival

We get used to driving around in cars and buying food which is out of season here and has to be flown in from all over the world.

We can at present still do this if we choose to, but as the oil supplies reduce and prices escalate, this will no longer be a choice.


Australia: Luxury car tax bill passes Senate

The federal government's luxury car tax increase finally passed parliament's upper house on Tuesday night after being heavily amended by cross bench senators.

The government's four bills seek to lift the luxury car tax, which applies to cars worth more than $57,180, from 25 per cent to 33 per cent.


School shines in green drive

After a year of turning off lights, wrapping hot water cylinders and producing its own power, Inglewood High School has come up trumps.

The school aimed to cut back 15 per cent of its electricity demand between July 2007 and June 2008 through the enviropower project.

It ended up saving 17 per cent and the year-long pilot has been heralded a success by the school and partners Venture Taranaki and the Ministry for the Environment.


Portland, Oregon: Interview with the general manger of Zipcar

The city of Portland created a "peak oil task force" in July 2006 and asked Scott to chair it. The task force delivered its report in April 2007 concluding, among other things, that rising oil prices are inevitable. The sooner Portland residents adjust to doing things in ways that are less dependent on oil, the task force said, the less disruptive inevitable changes will be.

We asked Scott about changes he has seen in Portland that were brought by rising gas.


Opposing Views: Should the U.S. Allow Offshore Oil Drilling?

Our lives revolve around oil. Oil brings food to our stores, comprises the fibers in our carpets and makes the plastic in our DVDs. With demand so high it’s no wonder attention has turned to supply, with some advocating the U.S. lift the ban against drilling for oil off its coasts. Is offshore oil drilling a golden opportunity, or would it only create a tidal wave of disaster?


Life Changes

With higher energy costs driving up the price of everything -- driving your car as well as eating -- and warnings that Earth's increasingly hostile climate is only going to reduce man's capacity to produce food, what some yearn for is the promise that this is all just a temporary setback.

That your cruise-controlled, climate-controlled, shrink-wrapped, fossil-fueled lifestyle isn't going away.


Bring on the carbon army

As the economic crisis deepens, the worsening state of the environment is predictably losing prominence in politics, the media and public debate. It always happens: when times are good, green is good. When times get tough, out goes the green stuff.

This time, however, it is different. The science has moved on. Climate change is no longer a matter of speculation and no longer can it be seen as a long-term concern to be ignored while we deal with more pressing economic shocks: although that is what could easily happen.


Greenland: roar of melting glacier sounds climate change alarm

ILULISSAT, Denmark (AFP) - Flying low over the vast, white expanse of Greenland's Ilulissat glacier, one of the biggest and most active in the world, the effects of global warming in the Arctic are painfully visible as the ice melts at an alarming rate.

..."The ice in some places on the coast is now melting four times faster than before," says Abbas Khan, a Dane who studies the movements of Greenland's glaciers at the Danish Space Centre.


McCain pledges to renew Australian alliance

AUSTRALIA has looked to the US for leadership on global climate change and it is "time for us to answer that call", John McCain says.

Writing in today's The Australian, the US Republican presidential candidate says he will work with the Rudd Government to establish a global framework that would encourage China and India to become part of the solution to man-made climate change. Senator McCain says he is committed to a market-based cap-and-trade system aimed at reducing carbon emissions. And he wants a closer bilateral partnership on other key issues such as nuclear proliferation, trade liberalisation and combating terrorism.


Greenland's ice cap melting faster than expected: experts

COPENHAGEN (AFP) - Greenland's ice cap, which covers more than 80 percent of the island, is melting faster than expected because of global warming, a Danish researcher said on Monday.

The 1.8-million-square-kilometre (695,000-square-mile) ice cap, which accounts for 10 percent of the planet's fresh water, is losing about 257 cubic kilometres (62 cubic miles) of ice per year.

In 2080, it is expected to lose 465 cubic kilometres (111 cubic miles) per year, according to new estimates presented by a Danish-US team of scientists at the International Research Center in Fairbanks, Alaska.

The net loss in 2080 would be "81 percent greater than today" and would cause "sea levels to rise by 107 millimetres" (4.2 inches), the team's head researcher Sebastian Mernild said in a statement received in Copenhagen.

Monday, September 22, 2008

The Best Advice Comes from Biased Judges

I was using google desktop to try and find a file in the sea of unorganized word documents I have on my external hard drive and I came across some judge comments I wrote down after a decision. Hopefully some of the insights will be helpful to someone.

1. Take judge notes- you should keep a word document of comments from every judge after every time they judge you. The usefulness of this is beyond measure. Especially if you debate on the same circuit over and over again where you will have the same judges (I learned how to debate in front of Dallas Perkins by watching him praise one of my high school rivals vociferously, from that point on every single time I debated in front of Dallas I just did my best impression of that kid and it worked wonders). I cannot emphasize this enough so I will just say this: if you had the option of spending 7 weeks at camp, or getting a judge notebook from a top debater on how to debate in front of every judge you would have, I would pick the notebook every time. Lastly, most debaters are lazy and so they don't do this and it will give you a huge asymmetrical edge if you do. (most debaters don't even read written judge philosophies before the round).

2. What to write down and what not to write down- things like "thought our uniqueness evidence was better" are useless- write down WHY they thought that. You need to apply your critical thinking skills to interpreting their comments and then writing down things that will help you in a future debate. Every judge, for the most part, says they are open to things and like speed etc- but does their decision convey to you that they kept a good flow of a high speed K debate and then evaluated the issues fairly? If not, write it down.

3. Comments I wrote down that were money in the bank and why:

A. It is my general belief that while many judges will not say they are biased or have predispositions, most judges do have a certain way of evaluating issues. For example, Aarron Kall puts a heavy emphasis on evidence and will decide for himself who's cards are better based on recency and author qualifications. Jairus Grove on the other hand puts more emphasis on debaters explaining thier points and won't call for all your cards you extended in a bibliographical laundry list. Knowing basic things like that is crucial to judge adaptation.

But above and beyond that, judges have meta level ways of trying to figure out issues. This could be do they use offense/defense, do they think theory is automatically just reject argument not team etc. Those are simple examples. A more complex example might be when a certain judge thinks intervention is ok- i.e. if neither side does impact analysis, do they think its ok to do it themselves for example. Now these are much harder to decipher- you need to pay a lot of attention to see when judges are doing it.

B. The reason biased judges do the best job of giving you comments is they boil the debate down to the central problems with your arguments and explain either how you did or did not overcome them.

Enough hypothetical, onto the specific example. In the debate in question I was negative and went for a combination of the positive peace kritik and the china threat k. The connecting factor was that the Aff read an advantage about Taiwan war, and we read a piece of evidence about why focusing on the possibility of US-Taiwan war was bad because it forced Taiwan to militarize/hurt plans for peaceful integration, and that the US used Taiwan as a proxy to justify violent containment strategies against china.

The aff in the 2AC read realism good, non violence bad, fear of nuclear weapons good, deconstruction of nuclear weapons bad, and some "reps focus" bad framework arguments.


At the time I assessed that our panel was slightly neg leaning on the K, but not so neg leaning that I could get out of these sort of impact turn arguments with a song and a dance. So the 2NC both impact turned these arguments, and spent some time explaining how our K did not reject all fear or realism in the abstract, but instead questioned the idea that we had to be fearful about China- and more specifically that we should fear for Taiwan.

Now, a quick note on the 2 judges who gave particularly insightful comments. They were Dave Strauss and Will Repko. In my personal assessment, I think these judges are on a 1-10 scale, about an 8 in terms of going for the K (with strauss being a low 8 and repko being a high 8). I think this because though both of them prefer policy arguments and would probably bash the K in a discussion about it, they both believe that debate is a hyper technical game where spin often trumps truth, and they both place a heavy emphasis on quality evidence. These don't necessarily favor all K debaters, but if you are well prepared I believe those 2 favor the neg over the aff on the K.

Now, the aff adopted the exact right strategy in this debate for these judges I believe. They didn't prance around with stupid no link arguments, they got right into the meat of the issue.

I will skip any more details as this is already getting too long. We won, and here are the specific comments and how they helped me think about things.

Repko- He bought our jazz-the K isn't an indictment of all fear, just specific China reps the aff used. He said the aff "failed to win the link" to their impact turns. Similarly, he thought on framework that while the aff won generically representations K's were bad, that the specificity of our china reps key evidence trumped their generic biz.

This in and of itself is not super special.

Strauss- he though the aff won thier turns, and we won our original impact of turning US china war. He also thought we won impact calc that China war was worse. I wrote down "

Generally fearful good, representing china that way bad, that accessed Taiwan which was a bigger impact".



Anyone see the differance?


These two judges who most people (myself included at the time) gave very differant decisions due to (I believe) meta level predispositions. Repko's decision focused on the LINK whereas Strauss focussed on the IMPACT, even though they both watched the same round. Now if 2 pretty similar judges can walk away from the same debate with very differant views on what was most important, it should be obvious that judge adaptation is a very if not the most important skill you can work on improving.



And i think this distinction plays out with many judges based on age- younger judges seem to place a very high emphasis on impacts (and uniqueness) whereas older judges put a big emphasis on the link. Why is this? I have a few theories, but I think mainly its because if you are 18-27 right now when you went to debate camp the "hot"theoretical issues of the day you spent a lot of time talking about were controlling uniqueness on politics, and impact overviews about timeframe, magnitude and probability. So it makes sense that when you judge you would put heavy emphasis on those.


Back to their comments, someone who isn't paying attention could write down "Repko and strauss both said we won because we are more specific".


Someone who wants to win tournaments would right down "Repko focused on the link level as the deciding factor in his decision, whereas strauss focused on impact comparison".



One other differance in their decisions related to the Goldstein neg peace o/w pos peace card. They both thought it was a great card, but thought we weaseled out of it for differant reasons. Repko thought that while it may be generally true that we should focus on peace first, that in the context of china doing that would create a self fulfilling prophecy, and that in the context of Taiwan would not result in negative peace. Strauss thought this evidence was only a defense of the plan, and not their representations, and since he thought we won framework disregarded it.


Again- if you are paying attention these 2 ways of dealing with this card are very differant. Repko again looked at the link as a probability issue- what are the chances focusing on neative peace in the context of Taiwan would be a good vs bad idea? Strauss let us cheat, a perhaps less sophisticated but equally effective way of dealing with it.


Now, I can't be sure, but I think perhaps Repko made an argument for the aff in his head, maybe even without knowing it, that this piece of evidence IS on face a defense of representations, since you can't prioritize negative peace without discussing it. Is that judge intervention? As a debater I would of said Yes, without a doubt. But having judged more now I see that it is simply AN interpretation of evidence. Not to roll the Heidegger K, but debaters seem to assume that THEIR interpretation is not one among many, but in fact the capital T truth interpretation of that evidence. I think it is pretty reasonable for a judge to read that goldstein card and say "this is talking about reps" , I also think its reasonable for them to say the opposite.


MORE IMPORTANTLY- you as a debater need to know which judges are likely to do which, and ADAPT accordingly.




Thursday, September 18, 2008

Alternative Press Search Engine

One of the Harker librarians created this custom google search engine that is pretty bad ass for finding alternative press articles (read: crazy cards).

Good Articles-9/18

Controversial path to possible glut of natural gas: Water and chemicals injected at high pressure can extract more gas – and possibly pollute drinking water

Instead of falling, US gas production is rising, with up to 118 years’ worth of “unconventional” natural gas reserves in 21 huge shale basins, an industry study in July reported. Such reserves could make the nation more energy self-sufficient and provide more of a cleaner “bridge fuel” to help meet carbon-reduction goals urged by environmentalists.

Shale gas reserves have a powerful economic lure. Companies, states, and landowners could all reap a windfall in the tens of billions. Some also predict lower heating costs for residential gas users as production increases.

Now, scores of natural gas companies are fanning out from Fort Worth, Texas, where hydraulic fracturing of shale has been done for at least five years, to lease shale lands in 19 states, including Pennsylvania and New York.

But some warn that by expanding “hydraulic fracturing” of shale, America strikes a Faustian bargain: It gains new energy reserves, but it consumes and quite possibly pollutes critical water resources.

[break]

Pickens says Wal-Mart to study switch from diesel

HOUSTON (Reuters) - Texas oil tycoon T. Boone Pickens said on Wednesday he has convinced the head of Wal-Mart Stores Inc to study the possibility of switching the fuel used for the retailer's huge fleet of delivery trucks to compressed natural gas, from diesel.

Wal-Mart officials confirmed that Pickens was a guest speaker at a monthly associates meeting September 13 in Bentonville, Arkansas, with chief executive Lee Scott and thousands of Wal-Mart employees.


Rising prices tip another 75 million towards starvation: FAO

ROME (AFP) — Global numbers afflicted by acute hunger rose from 850 million to 925 million by the start of this year because of rising prices, the head of the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation said Wednesday.

The number of people suffering from malnutrition, before the worst effects of global price rises, "rose just in 2007 by 75 million," Jacques Diouf, director-general of the Rome-based agency, told an Italian parliament committee, according to ANSA news agency.


Instead of Eating to Diet, They’re Eating to Enjoy

In May, the market research firm Information Resources reported that 53 percent of consumers say they are cooking from scratch more than they did just six months ago, in part, no doubt, because of the rising cost of prepared foods.

...Meanwhile, books like Gary Taubes’s “Good Calories, Bad Calories” (Alfred A. Knopf, 2007) and Michael Pollan’s “In Defense of Food” (Penguin, 2008) have prompted a rethinking of Americans’ eating habits and dependence on processed and refined foods.


Scientists Behind 'Doomsday Seed Vault' Ready The World's Crops For Climate Change

As climate change is credited as one of the main drivers behind soaring food prices, the Global Crop Diversity Trust is undertaking a major effort to search crop collections—from Azerbaijan to Nigeria—for the traits that could arm agriculture against the impact of future changes. Traits, such as drought resistance in wheat, or salinity tolerance in potato, will become essential as crops around the world have to adapt to new climate conditions.


Tight Labor Vexes Brazil's Deep-Sea Oil Drilling

RIO DE JANEIRO - Technological advances will help oil giant Petrobras and its foreign partners tap huge subsalt reserves off Brazil's coast, but a shortage of skilled workers and tight equipment supplies pose challenges.


Stripper wells try to get more oil from ground

(CNN) -- The political discussion about solving America's energy crisis is focused on offshore drilling and renewable energy, but scattered throughout the country are thousands of small oil wells called stripper wells.

Many of them are family owned and these small, independent operators say they could also be part of the energy solution. Forgotten about and misunderstood, many small operators say most people don't even know they exist.


Heating aid on the way to CT

Washington - The White House announced Wednesday it would direct nearly $7 million in energy assistance funds to Connecticut as part of an effort to help low-income families heat their homes this winter.

Democratic Sens. Christopher Dodd and Joseph Lieberman and Democratic Rep. Joe Courtney, 2nd District, welcomed the move, but warned the assistance was not enough to help working families weather the current energy crisis.


Government steps up call for nuclear power

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain will step up its campaign for new nuclear power stations on Thursday, saying they are vital for energy security, climate change and job creation.

Industry minister John Hutton will tell the newly-created Nuclear Development Forum's first meeting that new nuclear power plants are also crucial in preventing power cuts as ageing coal and nuclear plants are progressively shut down.


Lithuanian Hope for Nuclear Extension Dashed by EU

BRUSSELS - Lithuania's hopes of being allowed to extend the life of its Ignalina nuclear power plant were dashed on Wednesday by the European Commission.

In its treaty on joining the European Union in 2004, Lithuania promised to shut by the end of 2009 the second reactor at the plant, which is similar to Ukraine's Chernobyl facility where the world's worst nuclear disaster struck in 1986.


Australia MPs oppose uranium sale

Australia should not sell uranium to Russia, a parliamentary committee says.

It said the $800 million deal should not go ahead until Russia assuaged doubts about the separation of its civilian and military uses of uranium.


Tesla, city strike deal to build all-electric sedan

Tesla got final approval Tuesday of a deal with the city of San Jose to lease nearly 90 acres of city-owned land for a plant to build the Model S, an all-electric sedan.


Scientific breakthroughs needed to unlock nation's energy potential

America has given itself a tall order. We are determined to meet growing energy demands while reducing our reliance on imported oil and curtailing greenhouse gases.

But these commendable goals are being overrun by reality. The U.S. is showing few signs of reducing its dependence on fossil fuels such as petroleum and natural gas. Crude oil alone supplies more than 40 percent of U.S. energy demands and almost all of our transportation fuels, and we import 60 percent of it.


We need an expensive miracle

Any notion that renewables can provide for all our requirements is a mischievous and reckless boast that will leave us in the dark.


Energy plant hits snag

Defense officials canceled a preliminary contract with Siemans Building Technologies to construct a waste-to-energy plant at Dyess following the firm's requirement for $18 million up front from the Department of Defense, congressional aides said.

"They determined that the structure and the price of the project had gone way beyond the scope," Abilene Mayor Norm Archibald said. "But they're looking to regroup and see what we can do there."


Peak oil "wrong," says Schwartz

Forget everything you've heard about peak oil as a driver of clean technology, said futurist Peter Schwartz today in a provocative closing session at the Cleantech Forum XVIII in Washington D.C.

"The peak oil people simply don't know what they're talking about, they don't know the facts," claimed Schwartz, co-founder and chairman of the Global Business Network and author of five books.

"Peak oil is wrong. We really don't know how much oil there is in most of the oil reservoirs of the world. Oil reservoirs are complex geological structures, and most of the data is in private hands, or in state governments, and they are not particularly forthcoming about how much is there."


Oil prices rise further as dollar drops

LONDON (AFP) - Oil prices extended gains on Thursday as the dollar fell following a coordinated plan by major central banks around the world to boost liquidity amid a credit crunch.

"The coordinated move by central banks has seen the dollar sold off and has sparked some interest in the dollar denominated commodities like oil," said Sucden analyst Nimit Khamar.


Parts of the nation still having gasoline shortages

Parts of the USA are still running short of gasoline five days after Hurricane Ike knocked out 20% of the nation's refining capacity.

The crunch is especially severe in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, which get their gas through pipelines from the Gulf region. It's largely hitting stations and convenience stores not affiliated with big brands such as ExxonMobil.


Gas is plentiful but panic buying shuts down some pumps

Hurricane Ike’s rampage over oil production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico and Texas did not seriously disrupt statewide petroleum inventories, but that hasn’t stopped numerous reports of price gouging and gas stations going dry.


JPMorgan Questioned on Oil Bets

A Senate subcommittee told JPMorgan Chase on Wednesday to immediately start turning over a year’s worth of internal documents about the bank’s view on oil speculation.

The move came after the subcommittee obtained a private message in which an investment officer seemed to contradict testimony other bank executives gave to the Senate this week.


Are we paying too much?

Governments like New Brunswick that base their regulated gas prices on the New York Harbor price might as well lay their heads on the chopping block of corporate greed, says a Toronto economist who has spent years researching the concept of price gouging by big oil companies.


Irrational pessimism

Examples of exuberance and panic both abound. On the former, in April this year, CIBC economist Jeffrey Rubin made predictions of $150 by 2010 and $200 by 2012. "Despite the recent record jump in oil prices, the outlook suggests that oil prices will continue to rise steadily over the next five years, almost doubling from current levels," wrote Rubin in his April forecast.

Rubin turned out to be early on his $150 forecast when oil suddenly jumped near that, to $147, in a compressed time span this year. (This week, he retracted such hyper-exuberant predictions with lower estimates.)

In retrospect, oil's sudden rise to such heights may have been part self-fulfilling prophecy given predictions from Rubin and others; it was apparently also one part speculation by index funds and others who wanted some place to park cash after fleeing financials in late 2007 and early 2008, at least according to one report released Thursday from an American hedge fund analyst.


Business elite confront world turned on its head

"On the agenda is energy supply, and also we're talking about where is the economy, what's the future," notes Mitchell. "One of the questions is, what happened to $200 oil? Things now are nothing like they were even a month ago."


Tops in Rocks

Oliver and Horvat are also "peak oil" theorists, believing the world's crude production will soon reach its apex and shift into a permanent decline. Commodities, they say, are in an unprecedented boom that will last for years because of sustained strong demand from the rapidly industrializing economies of China and India, and years of underinvestment in mineral exploration.


Brazil Plans 60-Strong Staff for New Oil Company, Estado Says

(Bloomberg) -- Brazil's plans for a new state oil company to control the country's ``pre-salt'' fields include a 60-strong staff, O Estado de S. Paulo reported, citing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

The government is seeking to create ``a fund, a small company,'' rather than ``another Petrobras,'' Lula said in comments recorded for TV Brasil, according to the newspaper. Petroleo Brasileiro SA, or Petrobras, is Brazil's state- controlled oil producer.


IEA Says U.S. Natural Gas Price to Average $10 This Year

``A number of factors, including higher oil prices, weather conditions and supply and demand imbalance, all played a role during the price increases in the past 18 months,'' the IEA said in its Natural Gas Market Review 2008. U.S. natural-gas prices have fallen to about $8 a million Btus from more than $13 a million Btus in July.


Russian Oil Companies May Team Up in Venezuela, Kommersant Says

(Bloomberg) -- Russian oil companies may form a partnership to develop oil projects in Venezuela, Kommersant reported, citing Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin.

No Russian oil company is ready to make the necessary investments alone to develop Venezuelan oil blocks with ``difficult characteristics,'' the Moscow-based newspaper said today, citing Sechin.


Oil-rich Russia reels as Wall Street crisis spreads

Stock markets in Russia suspended trading for a second consecutive day Thursday as the government tried to stem the dizzying plummet in share prices and restore confidence in the economy.

News agencies are quoting the Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin as saying the markets will remain closed until Friday.


Russia Cuts Oil Export Tax to Free Up $5.5 Billion

(Bloomberg) -- Russia plans to slash export duties on oil and refined products to free $5.5 billion for companies after crude fell from a record, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said.


Alberta's ‘dirty' oil a sticky problem for Charest

If you had to choose between Alberta oil or crude from Algeria and Angola, which should you pick?

This is the decision Quebec Premier Jean Charest faces now that Calgary-based Enbridge Inc. has unveiled plans to pipe heavy crude from the Alberta oil sands to refineries in Montreal for the first time.


Iran official says missiles can reach ships in Gulf

TEHRAN (Reuters) - A top adviser of Iran's supreme leader said that in the event of war no ship passing through the oil-rich Gulf region would be beyond the reach of the country's missiles, a government newspaper reported on Thursday.

Iran, embroiled in a standoff with the West over its nuclear ambitions, has said it could respond to any military attack by closing the strait at the southern end of the Gulf through which about 40 percent of the world's traded oil passes.


New attacks on pipelines in delta of Nigeria

LAGOS, Nigeria: Fighting between militant groups and the Nigerian military in the oil-rich Niger Delta on Wednesday entered a fifth day in the region's worst violence in two years, raising fears of an escalation in the unrest that has plagued the area.

...Royal Dutch Shell, the giant Anglo-Dutch multinational, confirmed two attacks on its pipelines Monday but said it could not yet confirm an attack MEND claimed it carried out on a Shell-operated pipeline on Wednesday morning.

Shell has "down-manned facilities in some field locations" and "is concerned about the recent upsurge of attacks on its facilities in Eastern Niger Delta," a Shell spokeswoman in Nigeria said.


Nigeria Loses 280,000 Barrels Daily to Attacks Over Five Days

(Bloomberg) -- Nigeria lost 280,000 barrels daily of its crude output to attacks launched by armed militants in the Niger Delta oil region in the past five days, bringing currently shut output to about one million barrels a day, the state-run oil company said.

``Current shut-in production stands at about one million barrels a day, but it's not necessarily due to militant attacks,'' Levi Ajuonuma, spokesman for the Nigerian National Petroleum Corp. said by phone from the country's capital, Abuja, today. ``Only 28 percent (280,000 barrels) is because of militant action.''


Oil India asked not to use IPO cash in Iran

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Foreign banks advising Oil India Ltd on its initial public offering have sought an assurance the explorer will not invest the funds raised in Iran and Sudan, which face U.S. sanctions, oil ministry officials said on Wednesday.


Con Edison Is Penalized for Blackouts

State regulators ordered Con Edison on Wednesday to return $9 million to customers for blackouts that occurred in New York City and Westchester County in 2007.

Customers will not get a refund or a credit. Rather, the money will be subtracted from any rate increase approved by the Public Service Commission, according to a Con Ed spokesman, Michael Clendenin.


Documentary Film On Peak Oil and Suburban Sprawl, Sprawling From Grace, Available On DVD

EMotion Pictures Productions, LLC announces the release of its current documentary film Sprawling From Grace; Driven To Madness available for purchase in DVD format.

"At a time when people are looking at alternative energy sources for our current oil dependency, we're excited to release this film as a way of showcasing the problems created by suburban sprawl," stated David M. Edwards, producer and director of Sprawling From Grace. "It details the difficulties and dangers we face from an aging transportation infrastructure, and brings attention to the problem of peak oil and how it relates to the current oil crisis."

This film features former President Bill Clinton; former Governor of Massachusetts Michael Dukakis; author of The Long Emergency, James Howard Kunstler; and Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper. It explores how our nation is responding to the growing concerns of peak oil and the looming oil crises, and investigates the ability of alternative energy to replace petroleum. The film reveals the relationship between transportation and development, and advocates for change in the way in which we build our cities.


Peak Oil: Out of Gas at Last?

The enduring prospect of sky-high fuel prices concentrates the collective mind wonderfully on energy issues, maybe even the large ones like resource depletion, climate change, and our own ravenous rates of consumption (of everything). The following recent and forthcoming titles reveal a wide range of responses to the energy crisis; most prescribe cures for our oil addiction, while a couple are purely descriptive of "peak oil," the point at which oil production goes into a terminal decline, and attendant issues. Starred entries are highly recommended for all collections.


Enterprise 2.0 - Now a necessity in a low/no capital world - The Death of the Dinos

What we are experiencing is not a normal correction but the equivalent of an asteroid strike.

It will get worse. For another key environmental factor for the 1.0 model was cheap and easily availble energy. As the new reality of Peak Oil becomes clear, then all business models also based on moving goods long distances and from huge central hubs fail. Of course this model is also based on massive usage of financial capital.


What once was old is new again: The car is dying; it's the age of the bike

The developed world held its breath early this summer as prices for crude oil climbed to nearly $150 per barrel — five times the 2003 price. Then, with fingers pointing in all directions, strange things started happening: In the car-centric United States, ridership rates on public transit systems shot up to levels unseen since the 1950s, American sales of automobiles dipped 16 percent, and airline pilots were ordered to slow down to conserve fuel. Suddenly, people worldwide were re-evaluating their relationship to transport and the sustainability — triggered by concern for their wallets — of commuting solo in a one-ton machine occupying the space of a small elephant.


UK: The political high ground is Labour's: The future demands an active state redistributing wealth to balance a dysfunctional economy – our party's founding principle

Britain faces acute problems in creating a more equal and sustainable economy. Decades of wealth creation have ended up in the pockets of a few. Wage levels are stagnating or falling. Benefit levels continue to drop behind earnings, unemployment is set to rise. Welfare reform will see an increasing number of the ill and disabled excluded from all forms of social support. The trend to inequality and poverty will intensify. In the longer term there is the impact of the global problems of food insecurity and water scarcity. The fear of impoverishment in old age, and the burdens of caring for aged relatives extends across the population. To compound these anxieties is the threat of climate change and peak oil. For the great majority of people, there are no individual, market solutions to these problems.


Can human poo solve the impending energy crisis?

The human bottom seems like an unlikely answer to the world's oil needs, but a group of South Island engineers say it has the potential to revolutionise the energy industry.

Researchers plan to create crude oil from human waste and sewage treatment ponds, perhaps holding the key to solving the impending energy crisis.


Report: U.S. lax on exports of toxic e-waste from old e-gear

U.S. regulators aren't enforcing even limited laws against exporting toxic waste from used electronics, the Government Accountability Office said Wednesday.

The GAO report is the first time the government has come down hard on toxic e-waste exports, activists say. They can expose workers in poor countries to lead and other hazards.

A "substantial" amount of e-waste goes to China and India, the GAO said. There, it's often disposed of unsafely via open-air burning of wire to recover copper and acid baths to loosen metals.


Sinking feeling: Hot year damages carbon uptake by plants

PARIS (AFP) - Plant and soil can take up to two years to recover from an exceptionally hot year, a finding that has implications for the combat against global warming, according to research published on Wednesday.

The recovery lag could cause a rethink about the ability of grasslands and soil to act as a sponge, also known as a "sink," that removes carbon dioxide (CO2) from the air, its authors said.